Tuesday's Reflections on the NFL - Midway Predictions

As Week 9 came and went in the NFL, we have officially reached the halfway point in the season schedule.

Still nothing has been resolved in the NFL, except that the Titans are 8-0 and have a 4 game lead in the AFC South at the turn and remain the leagues only undefeated team. And the Lions, after a 27-23 loss to the Bears, are the last team without a win.

As the season has now turned to the home stretch, it is time to take a look around the NFL and see who is on their way up, and who will falter on their way out of the playoffs. Who is the mid-season MVP? Which rookie will continue their amazing season and take ROY honours? There is lots still to be determined, and surely nothing in the NFL will ever be fully resolved until Week 17.

However, there is always room for fearless predictions and gutsy choices in Week 9. If the boastful host predicts correctly, bragging rights for being so amazingly brilliant. And if it so happens that said predictions are wrong, well then, I'll find someone to blame...

Divisional Predictions

AFC East

This is one amazingly difficult division to predict at this point of the season. The standings after Week 9 are as follows:

New York Jets 5-3
Buffalo Bills 5-3

New England Patriots 5-3

Miami Dolphins 4-4

This is clearly anyone's division. Ask before the season began and anyone would have said "Pats will win this one, no doubt." Then, with one shot to the knee of Tom Brady, and to the hopes of all New England fans, that theory was in doubt. A team that finished 16-0 last season, is now relying on the quarterbacking abilities of a man who hadn't started a game since high school and threw just 31 passes in his entire NCAA career.

The Bills looked like the team to beat early in the season, getting off to a 4-0 start with 2nd year QB Trent Edwards and RB Marshawn Lynch leading the offense and a steady defense anchoring the squad. However, losers of 3 of their last 4 and the Bills look pretty ordinary again. Edwards has struggled and the defense is ailing. Chances are the Bills bottom out in the second half of the season. They play the Pats next week, which will be a huge matchup for both teams.

The Jets have been up and down all season, as have the Pats. However, one has to imagine that if anyone can win down the stretch, it's Brett Farve. Sure he leads the NFL in interceptions right now, but he's doing enough to win, and the defense on Broadway is just good enough to win.

The Pats are playing well behind a first-time NFL starter. The defense is as good as ever, and will win games regardless of what the offense is doing. Having said that however, you lose Tom Brady, the '07-'08 MVP, you lose a lot. The Pats aren't nearly the team they were last year, we all know that, but they will be just fine down the stretch.

Division winner in the AFC East:

Final Division Standings

Jets 11-5
Patriots 10-6
Dolphins 8-8

Bills 7-9

AFC North

A much less contested division, the class of this one is definitely the Pittsburgh Steelers. After Monday's victory over a good Redskins team showed that they really are the team to beat in the North. The Ravens will be tough to beat, as the leagues #2 defense is always a challenge. However, the Steelers are the leagues #1 defense at the midway point and have a sturdy QB in Ben Roethlisberger and a fine running attack with Willie Parker and Mweldae Moore. The other two teams in the division, the Browns and Bengals are struggling and have no hope of a playoff run. The Bengals have already guaranteed a .500 season at best and the Browns have opted to bench starting QB Derek Anderson in favour of second year man Brady Quinn.

This division is definitely the Steelers to lose, and I think they are certainly strong enough to win it fairly easily.

Division winner in the AFC North:

Final Division Standings:

Steelers 12-4

Ravens 9-7

Browns 5-11

Bengals 3-13

AFC South

It's hard to say at this point in the season, with Tennessee having such a lead, that any other team will even challenge them for the title. The Colts are starting to look better, but are by no means good enough to make up a 4 game deficit in half a season, mostly because I don't believe the Titans will even lose 4 games all year.

The race for second place in the South will be much more interesting as the Colts, Jags and Texans are within a game of each other. However, the Texans are without Matt Shaub for 2-4 weeks, which can only mean trouble (see Tuesday's Reflections on the NFL - Sage Rosenfels is a Jackass). The Jags look like they'll most likely miss the playoffs too, as without the running game working, David Gerrard is having problems through the air.

Division winner in the AFC South:

Final Division Standings:

Titans 14-2

Colts 10-6

Jags 8-8

Texans 6-10

AFC West

A two-horse race really in the West as the Chiefs and Raiders can really be discounted. Neither team has any offense or defense to speak of, and will definitely miss the playoffs yet again. The quarterback merry-go-round and the suspension of pro bowl running back Larry Johnson mean yet another season without any post-season. The Raiders will miss the playoffs in '08 due to an inexperienced squad and an inept offense.

This race comes down to two amazing offensive teams with terrible defenses. The Chargers should have come into the season a heavy favourite in the West. But having the leagues worst pass defense has made scoring on them way to easy. The Chargers lead the league in points per game, but are still 3-5 thanks to horrendous defensive play and the season-ending surgery of pro bowl linebacker Shawn Merriman.

The Denver Broncos currently lead the AFC West with a 4-4 record, but similarly to the Chargers, have played poorly on defense. The Broncos are home to the leagues #3 offense, but also the leagues #29 defense. The Broncos have also almost forgone the run game and are purely throwing with Jay Cutler. Teams will get used to this and will effectively stop the Broncos in the second half of the season.

Division winner in the AFC West:

Final Division Standings:

Chargers 9-7
Broncos 8-8
Raiders 5-11
Chiefs 3-13



AFC Wildcard Berths


Patriots 10-6; Colts 10-6



NFC East


The toughest division in the NFL has proven that it deserves this honour. All four of these teams could finish with records above .500 and probably will. It is also likely that 3 of the 6 NFC playoff teams will come from this division as was the case last year.


The Giants also look like they are the clear leader in this division, so the big question is who finishes 2, 3, 4 and who misses the playoffs.


At this point, it isn't really clear who is for real. The Eagles struggled in the early part of the season, and now it's the Cowboys who are faltering. The Redskins have been pretty consistent, but lack the skill at quarterback found throughout the rest of the division. At the midway point, it now looks like the Eagles, provided McNabb and Westbrook stay healthy, are probably the 2nd best team in the East.


The Cowboys recent slide can mostly be attributed to the fact that Tony Romo is out and backups Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger have struggled in replacing him. The bye week this week will help the plummeting Cowboys, and the return of Romo next week should have them back on track. Having said that however, there is no guarantee that Romo will do enough to turn this team around and make the playoffs. It's tough to say that a team as good as the Cowboys is the worst in division, but I'm afraid it's true.


Division winner in the NFC East:







Final Division Standings:


Giants 14-2
Eagles 11-5
Redskins 10-6
Cowboys 9-7



NFC North


The fact that the Bears have finally found an offense and have one helluva running back in Matt Forte can only mean great things for the boys in the Windy City. Chicago currently holds a one game lead over the Vikings and Packers, with Green Bay looking like the best of those two teams. However, second place in this division means absolutely nothing. As I mentioned above, the NFC East is most likely going to provide three playoff teams, therefore, any other NFC team will have to win their division to make the playoffs.


The Packers have the best chance of challenging the Bears for the division. Aaron Rodgers looks like he's the real deal and the defense puts points on the board almost more than they keep points off. The Vikings have one of the best running backs in the game in Adrian Peterson and a sturdy defense, but 37-year old Gus Frerotte, is not the answer at QB.


Having said all this, I don't think anyone will top Da Bears in the North. They look like they are ready to make another playoff appearance, and I believe that's just what the will do.


Division winner in the NFC North:







Final Division Standings:


Bears 11-5
Packers 9-7
Vikings 7-9
Lions 1-15
(Come on, they gotta win 1 game...don't they?)



NFC South


One of the most highly contested divisions in the NFL, we could see all 4 teams in the South finish with records of .500 or better. The teams are all amazingly close and have all had great success against teams outside of the division, proving just how tough it is.


The four teams in the division split their strengths defense vs. offense. The Saints are the #1 pass offense and the leagues overall leader in offense, but have very little defense. The Falcons are the NFLs #1 rushing offense, but have struggled with inconsistency in the pass defense. The Bucs are the NFLs 6th ranked defense, while division leader Carolina has the leagues #8 defense.


The division currently shapes up as follows:

Panthers 6-2
Bucs 6-3
Falcons 5-3
Saints 4-4


The Falcons and Saints play this Sunday, which could have playoff implications if either team is going to make a run for the post season. Carolina has looked strong behind QB Jake Delhome who's looked as good as he has in years. The Saints do have a strong MVP candidate in Drew Brees, but if the defense can't lock it down, they won't make the playoffs. The Falcons are playing well with Michael Turner 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards and strong play from rookie QB Matt Ryan, but will most likely run into some tough games down the stretch to miss the playoffs. The Bucs really look like the best team in the South to me and in all fairness lost all 3 of their games by 4 points or less.


Division winner in the NFC South:




Final Division Standings


Bucs 11-5
Panthers 10-6
Saints 8-8
Falcons 8-8


NFC West


There is really very little to say about this division. The Cardinals basically have this one wrapped up and can coast to their first divisional title since 1975 when they were the St. Louis Cardinals. The Seahawks, Rams and 49ers are all 2-6 and all look terrible. The main reason for the Cardinals fine season is the fact that Kurt Warner is back to his MVP ways. Also, playing in the NFLs worst division can't hurt one's chances in having a winning season.


Division winner in the NFC West:








Final Division Standings:

Cardinals 10-6
Rams 5-11
Seahawks 5-11
49ers 4-12



NFC Wildcard Berths


Eagles 11-5; Redskins 10-6



MVP Candidates

There are 4 players right now, who are all worthy of MVP chatter. I think two of the forerunners, especially if they can turn their teams fortunes around and make the playoffs are Saints QB Drew Brees and Chargers QB Philip Rivers. Brees leads the NFL in passing yards and the leagues #1 offense. Rivers leads the NFL in touchdown passes and leads a the highest scoring team in the league. However, in my mind, an MVP has to be someone on a winning who has driven their team into the playoffs. With both the Saints and Chargers .500 or lower, their chances at winning the MVP aren't great.




The two players right now who have their squads over .500 and are the driving forces behind these positions in the standings are Cardinals QB Kurt Warner and Redskins RB Clinton Portis.


Portis' play has gotten the Redskins off to a 6-3 start, and 2nd in the NFC East. He has rushed for a league leading 995 yards and has taken much of the pressure off of QB Jason Campbell who has been allowed to excel this season with Portis' strong play. Warner, the NFLs MVP in 1999, is back on track after several years of obscurity. Warner's numbers in midseason are amazing, having thrown for 2,431 yards while racking up 16 touchdowns. Both stats are good enough for second in the NFL amongst quarterbacks. The Cardinals have managed an average of 29.2 points per game, all while having virtually no run game, ranking 28th in the NFL in rush yards/game.


If it were my vote, the MVP would be Clinton Portis right now as he is the integral part in the 'Skins offense and the main reason for their success.










Clinton Portis Highlights






Defensive Player of the Year



This is always a tough award because defense is such a team game, and rarely does one player make a whole defense great. So far this season the top defenses are Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Washington, Tennesse, Giants. So is the MVP from any of these teams? No, not as far as I can figure. Pittsburgh has a great defense who swarm the ball and are great across the board. Baltimore has been dominant for years and still has a great core. Tennessee has a great secondary and a sturdy captain in Keith Bulluck, but not one player stands out. Justin Tuck from the Giants is about as good as it gets from the top 5 defensive teams.





However, the player I'm nominating for MVP is the Dolphins' Joey Porter. Porter has the Dolphins rush defense in the NFLs top 10 and are a vast improvement over last seasons defense which finished 23rd in the NFL. Porter leads the league with 11.5 sacks and has the defense working on a much improved Dolphins team who only won once all of last season.




Rookie of the Year


This one is down to two fine players who have both attributed to their teams success this season. The race is a tight one between Titans RB Chris Johnson and Falcons QB Matt Ryan. There have been other fine candidates, including Chicago's Matt Forte, but it has been the play of Matt Ryan that has been amazing.


Chris Johnson gets mentioned here as one of the favourites due to the fact that he is 4th in the NFL in overall rush yards and is on pace for a 1,430 yard season. He also has 5 touchdowns through 8 games and is a big reason for the Titans offensive success. The only minor set back to Johnson's hopes as the rookie of the year is that the defense is amazing in Tennessee and LenDale White is a great asset as a second back. But he is on an 8-0 team.


Matt Ryan has the Falcons with a 5-3 record, which gives them more wins than they had all of last season. Rarely does a rookie QB get a starting role and even less do they play well in that particular season. Ryan is 17th in the NFL in passing yards with 1,661 yards and 9 touchdowns and has to be the frontrunner for ROY honours.


My pick, well, it has to be Matt Ryan. Sure he has help from the NFLs 3rd leading rusher in Michael Turner, but he's doing an absolutely superb job leading the team to victory.



Matt Ryan's Bid for ROY



Recap


Jets win AFC East
Steelers win AFC North
Titans win AFC South
Chargers win AFC West

Patriots and Colts take AFC Wildcard

Giants win NFC East
Bears win NFC North
Bucs win NFC South
Cardinals win NFC West

Eagles and Redskins take NFC Wildcard


So remember, if at the end of the year and you find that these predictions are correct, remember where you heard it, and how amazing that guy might be for making such bets at the NFLs midway point.